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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2026

By Adhithya Aji

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are likely to open lower Tuesday amid elevated crude oil prices and a rise in India's core inflation. Crude oil prices are hovering around $107 per barrel, which is way above comfortable levels for India, a net importer of energy. The government data showed the country's core inflation rose to a 20-month high in August due to the West Asia war. Global peers, Asian markets opened lower Tuesday and US indices ended lower Monday.

At 0729 IST, the November futures of Brent were over 1% higher at $106.83 per barrel. Over the last seven days, crude oil prices gained over 10% on the back of ongoing military action in West Asia. The passage of cargo through the strategically vital waterway, the Strait of Hormuz, remained below normal levels owing to the war, according to various media reports. The war escalated after the Iran-backed Houthis targeted Aramco's oil infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates last week. Adding to this, the US and Iran continued to launch attacks on each other, showing no signs of peace talks.

The core inflation in US rose 0.3%, as per the data from the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index Friday. This has sharply reinforced an intrest rate hike expectations. Nearly 94% of the market participants expects the US Federal Reserve to hike the intrest rate to around 3.75% to 4.00% from current 3.50% to 3.75%, as per the data from CME FedWatch tool.

Back home, on Monday, the government released the retail inflation numbers for August. India's headline inflation rose to a 20-month high of 4.82% from 4.45% in July due to higher food, transport, and restaurant services inflation driven by the impact of the ongoing West Asia war. The numbers were in line with an Informist poll of 4.8%. The food inflation for August rose to 5.95% against 5.52% in July. The country's wholesale price index also rose in August due to higher food and fuel inflation owing to the West Asia war.

Amid these external pressures, foreign investors were net sellers of Indian equity. On Friday, overseas investors sold Indian shares worth INR 9.31 billion. They were net sellers of equities for the third consecutive week. They sold INR 56.10 billion shares, as per the data from the NSDL. "Going forward, FPI flows will be significantly influenced by the Iran-US conflict and the consequent impact on crude prices," Dr. V.K. Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist, said in a note. Vijayakumar added that if the US 10-year yield rises up to 5%, there could be a sharp correction in equity markets globally. "In such a scenario, FPIs may turn sellers and move money to high yielding bonds," he said.

At 0757 IST, the September futures of GIFT Nifty were 0.1% higher at 23525. The Nifty 50 index is expected to face selling pressure at the higher levels. If the index sustains above 23500 level, it could lead to a bounce back rally toward 23700-23800 points, according to Vipin Kumar, senior technical and derivatives analyst at Globe Capital Market. "This region will act as a strong resistance zone, and any rally toward these levels is likely to attract selling interest," Kumar said.  End

US$1 = INR 95.55

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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