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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026

 

By Adhithya Aji

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are expected to move in a range Thursday as investors focus on the much-awaited US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Analysts believe markets have priced in an interest rate hike, and investors now need clarity on how many hikes will be needed to contain inflationary pressures. Elevated crude oil prices and the US 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 5% will likely dampen sentiment.

 

Global markets this week were rattled by crude oil prices rising over $108 per barrel, US Treasury yields surpassing 5%, and an intensifying war in West Asia. Nearly 93% of federal funds futures traders now expect the US central bank to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75-4.00%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Back home, the Reserve Bank of India is also expected to raise its benchmark lending rate. 

 

Analysts expect the Indian central bank to raise its policy rate as inflation rises. Retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, surged to a 20-month high of 4.82% in August. This has sparked inflation concerns and heightened expectations that the RBI will raise the repo rate from the current 5.25%. Both the US Fed and RBI rate hikes are due and are probably priced in by the market, according to Geetanjali Kedia, chief analyst at SPTulsian Investment Advisory Services. "So I don't expect a knee-jerk reaction to these (rate hikes)," she said. Generally, rate hikes are perceived as negative for stock markets, but they are undertaken to tame rising inflation, Kedia added.

 

Crude oil prices remained elevated. November Brent crude futures were above $108 per barrel, up more than 48% from levels before the war in West Asia began. As a net importer of crude oil, India has historically been sensitive to higher crude oil prices. Corporate earnings in the September quarter are expected to take a hit. In the June quarter, companies performed better than expected despite higher crude oil prices, as they protected margins by using lower-cost inventory, Kedia said. Indian companies used their old inventory during the June quarter. In the upcoming quarter, the analyst said, a contraction in margins due to higher crude oil prices cannot be ruled out.

 

"The overall market bias remains cautious, with Nifty (50) showing indecision near lower levels while Bank Nifty witnessed stronger buying interest," Hitesh Tailor, technical research analyst at Choice Broking, said in a note. Some technical analysts do not rule out a near-term rally, as the 50-stock index remains in oversold territory. Technical analysts see support for the Nifty around 23000–23100, while resistance is pegged around 23300-23500. On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 ended 0.4% higher at 23217.60.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.96

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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