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Informist, Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026

 

By Adhithya Aji

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark stock indices are expected be range-bound as crude oil prices remain high, and this is expected to dampen investor sentiment. The markets didn't seem to show much of a knee-jerk reaction to the 25-basis point interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, as this had already been priced in. Now, expectations revolve around a benchmark rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India. 

 

"Investor sentiment is likely to stay cautious amid concerns over a possible broader rate-tightening cycle, driven by ongoing Middle East tensions and the risk of US tariff," Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said in a note. India is likely to face 100% tariff threat from the US after a key decision from lawmakers. The US House of Representatives passed an order that gives President Donald Trump the power to impose 100% tariffs on countries that have oil trade with Russia, as per media reports. India is on the list of the 10 countries that face the tariff threat.

 

Crude oil prices were above the psychological mark of $100 per barrel, even though they came off highs slightly. The November futures of Brent crude oil were over $103 per barrel, down nearly 3% but still over 41% higher than the levels before the US-Iran war. "Brent eased 1.7% to $104/bbl (per barrel), its lowest level in a week, offering some relief, though sustained levels above $100/bbl (per barrel) remain a headwind for margins and the current account," Siddhartha Khemka, head of research, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said in a note.

 

When crude oil prices rose sharply due to the West Asia war, central banks, including the Reserve Bank of India and the US Federal Reserve, had expected the impact to be transient, according to Joseph Thomas, head of research at Emkay Wealth Management. However, things have changed so drastically that other central banks, including the Bank of Japan, Bank of Australia, and European Central Bank, tightened monetary policy measures. "There could be some pressure on the RBI also on account of inflation," Thomas said. But the Indian central bank is expected to raise rates by only around a quarter percent.  

 

A reason why the RBI would be compelled to raise rates at smaller levels is because 50% of the government's INR 27 trillion borrowing programme is scheduled for the second half of the financial year. "So there is a huge amount of borrowing which is coming up, both of central government and state governments," Thomas said. The central bank aims to surpass the auction cycle smoothly without letting the benchmark rates to rise much higher, the analyst added. 

 

The Nifty 50 is expected to remain range-bound as higher crude oil prices continue to weigh on the index, said Jatin Gedia, vice president, technical research at Teji Mandi Investment technologies. He said a meaningful correction in crude oil prices will push the index to 24000 levels. As of now, the 50-stock index is expected to be range-bound movement between 23100 and 23400 points.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.93

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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