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Informist, Monday, Sept. 21, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose slightly against the dollar Monday for the third consecutive day amid a fall in crude oil prices and state-owned banks' dollar sales on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. Banks' dollar purchases for importers and foreign fund outflows weighed on the local unit, they said. 

 

"Some (dollar) outflows kept the rupee under pressure, but the RBI was not allowing the rupee to fall or rise, they were keeping the rupee stable," a dealer at a foreign bank said.   

 

After hitting a high of 95.7125 per dollar during the day, the rupee settled at 95.8150 per dollar Monday, slightly higher than 95.8725 in the previous session. The rupee traded in a narrow range of 12 paise throughout the day. Other Asian currencies also strengthened against the dollar, with the Singapore dollar being the best performer. Bucking the trend, the Indonesian rupiah fell 0.5% against the dollar. 

 

The rupee was supported by a fall in Brent crude oil prices to around $101 a barrel as investors eyed a recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia despite ongoing attacks by Yemeni Houthis that have escalated the tension in West Asia while the US and Iran remain in a stalemate. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $101.88 a barrel, down from $103.87 a barrel Friday and $104.82 Thursday. 

 

Dollar sales by banks, likely for the RBI, ensured the rupee did not fall from the previous close despite pressure from importers, dealers said. The RBI has been actively intervening in the currency market, both in spot and forwards, dealers said. Dealers estimate the central bank has sold $7 billion-$8 billion in the previous week to defend the domestic unit.

 

Dealers said inflows into Indian equities for initial public offerings also supported the local unit. The National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. raised INR 67.46 billion from anchor investors by allotting 37.79 million equity shares at INR 1,785 apiece, the upper end of the price band. The offer closed Monday. The IPO was fully subscribed on day two Friday, with the company getting offers for 89.5 million shares. 

 

The rupee fell from the day's high as banks bought dollars for importers amid relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. However, importers' dollar purchase was not agressive as they waited for the rupee to appreciate further, they said. A firm dollar also continued to weigh on the local unit, they said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 100.32, higher than 100.25 Friday.

 

Strong foreign portfolio outflows from domestic markets also weighed on the Indian currency, dealers said. FPIs have net sold $3.26 billion in equities and debt markets so far in September, compared with net investment of $1.87 billion in August.

 

	AT 1525 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8150	95.8100	95.7175	95.8475	95.8725
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	310.61	311.95	317.95	309.03	317.53

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell sharply as traders hedged their positions, dealers said. "Market was adjusting their positions, and premiums had to fall after rising sharply," a dealer at a foreign bank said. The dollar-rupee forward premiums were broadly steady during most of the day as the Reserve Bank of India conducted dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to drain excess rupee liquidity from the system.

 

The central bank likely bought forward dollars for maturity in four and five months, dealers said. This was the RBI's eighth consecutive trading day of holding sell-buy swaps in the forwards market, as per dealers. The RBI's net liquidity absorbed--a proxy for the banking system liquidity surplus--was INR 6.05 trillion Sunday, down from a record high of around INR 11 trillion seen in early September. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year forward premium was at 3.24%, down against 3.31% Friday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 310.61 paise, against 317.53 paise Friday. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee will track crude oil prices amid evolving developments in the war between the US and Iran, dealers said. The Indian unit is also likely to track the dollar index as traders gauge the Federal Reserve's interest rate path to its meeting in October. 

 

Amid global uncertainty, dealers expect importers to keep buying dollars, weighing on the rupee. However, looking at the recent intervention pattern of the central bank, they expect the RBI to keep actively intervening in the market to defend the currency. 

 

"Sentiment remains cautious as crude prices remain elevated and US-Iran tensions continue to pose risks. Persistent FII selling and concerns over higher US tariffs on Indian exports are also keeping pressure on the rupee," Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - commodity and currency, LKP Securities said in a note. 

 

Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.95 per dollar. The rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.65-95.95 per dollar Monday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar steadies; yen jumps after BoJ rate hike

 

	AT 1350 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3384	1.3394	1.3369	1.3396
EUR/USD	1.1479	1.1486	1.1471	1.1487
NZD/USD	0.5727	0.5728	0.5714	0.5715
AUD/USD	0.7132	0.7140	0.7115	0.7131
USD/JPY	157.1710	157.2750	156.5810	156.8750
USD/CAD	1.4012	1.4023	1.3984	1.3995
EUR/JPY	180.4190	180.5090	179.8500	180.2125
CHF/USD	1.2151	1.2169	1.2137	1.2156
EUR/CHF	0.9446	0.9452	0.9438	0.9450

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, was steady at 100.30 after gaining more than 1% last week following the Federal Reserve's rate hike, as the central bank signalled more increases could be coming. Traders see a 53% chance of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the October meeting, as per CME Fedwatch tool.

 

A fall in crude oil prices also supported the currencies, dealers said. Brent crude oil prices fell to around $101.72 a barrel as investors eyed a recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia despite ongoing attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis that have escalated tension in West Asia, even as the US and Iran remain in a stalemate. At 1350 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $101.72 a barrel, down from $103.87 a barrel Friday.

 

The yen rose 0.6% to 156.92 per dollar after dropping 2% last week. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates on Friday to 1.25%, their highest level in 31 years.

 

The euro was little changed at $1.1476, while the pound sterling rose 0.3% to $1.338 in early trading. The Canadian dollar was marginally up at 1.4016 a dollar and the Australian dollar was at 1.401 per dollar Monday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premium broadly steady; RBI's FX sell-buy swaps speculated

 

	AT 1313 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8200	95.8100	95.7175	95.8475	95.8725
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	316.97	311.95	317.95	311.95	317.53

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was broadly steady Monday as dealers speculate that the Reserve Bank of India conducted dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to drain excess rupee liquidity from the system, which offset the pressure from banks' forward dollar sales, dealers said.

 

The central bank likely bought forward dollars for maturity in four- and five-month maturities, dealers said. This was the RBI's eighth consecutive trading day of holding sell-buy swaps in the forwards market, as per dealers. Under a sell-buy swap, the RBI sells dollars for immediate delivery and simultaneously buys them for delivery at maturity, thereby absorbing rupee liquidity from the banking system. The RBI's net liquidity absorbed--a proxy for the banking system liquidity surplus--was INR 6.05 trillion Sunday, down from a record high of around INR 11 trillion seen in early September. 

 

"The RBI is likely hitting near-term tenure today, and the ripple effect is being seen in the rest of the tenures. Otherwise, there is only normal activity today," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

At 1318 IST, the one-year forward premium was at 3.31%, steady against 3.31% Friday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 316.97 paise, against 317.53 paise Friday.

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India Rupee:Pares most gains on importers' demand; likely RBI action supports

 

--Dealers: Some PSU banks' dollar sales, likely for RBI, support rupee 

--Dealers: Some PSU banks selling dollars, likely for RBI, around 95.85/$1 

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8325	95.8100	95.7175	95.8475	95.8725

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most gains as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. However, dealers said state-owned banks sold dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which ensured the local unit did not fall from the previous close. "Importers came in during the day. But, the rupee was broadly trading in 20 paise range as importers were waiting for better (rupee) levels," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The RBI has been intervening actively in the currency market for a week. Dealers estimate the central bank sold $7 billion-$8 billion in the previous week to defend the domestic unit. The RBI has kept the Indian unit from closing below 96.00 a dollar.

 

A fall in crude oil prices also supported the rupee, dealers said. Brent crude oil prices fell to around $101.90 a barrel as investors eyed a recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia despite ongoing attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis that have escalated tension in West Asia while the US and Iran remain in a stalemate. At 1230 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was $101.92 a barrel, down from $103.87 a barrel Friday.

 

The dollar index remained firm as the market continued to price in another rate hike by US Federal Reserve this year. Traders see a 53% chance of a rate hike in the October meeting, as per CME Fedwatch tool. At 1230 IST, the dollar index was at 100.31, slightly higher from 100.25 Friday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.70-95.90. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.87 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 21

 

MUMBAI – At 1120 IST, the rupee was at 95.8150 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.8100 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.8725. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.95	95.85	95.70	95.65
Public-sector bank	95.90	95.80	95.70	95.60
Private-sector bank	95.95	95.80	95.72	95.60
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.90	95.70	95.60
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.95	95.70	95.65

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Rises as crude prices cools off; importers' demand may weigh

 

	AT 0920 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7525	95.8100	95.8475	95.7400	95.8725

 

MUMBAI – The rupee traded higher against the dollar Monday as crude oil prices cooled off near $101 per barrel after hitting a highs of $109 a barrel in the previous week. The rupee opened at 95.8100 a dollar from its previous close of 95.8725 a dollar. 

 

"The rupee closely follows crude oil price movements, so the rupee rose as crude oil prices cooled down. I expect the rupee to appreciate further, if any positive global cues come in," a dealer at a public sector bank said. At 0917 IST, Brent crude oil prices for November delivery were at $101.47 a barrel, down from $103.87 a barrel Friday. 

 

Dealers speculate that the Reserve Bank of India intervened by selling dollars in the non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, triggering an appreciation of nearly 15 paise in the Indian rupee on Monday

   

Dealers expect banks to buy dollars for importers, noting a slight fall in crude oil prices, which may weigh on the Indian unit during the day. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.50-95.95. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.65 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 21

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	96.10	95.80
Private-sector bank	96.10	95.70
Private-sector bank	95.95	95.65
Brokerage firm	96.25	95.80
Brokerage firm	96.05	95.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Steady as crude prices fall, dlr index remains flat

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies were broadly steady against the dollar as crude oil prices fell slightly from the highs of $109 per barrel seen in the previous week as investors eyed a recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia despite ongoing attacks by Yemeni Houthis that have escalated tension in the West Asia while the US and Iran remained in a stalemate. At 0820 IST, Brent Crude oil for November delivery was $101.75 a barrel, down from $103.87 a barrel Friday.

 

The dollar index remained flat at 100.25 Monday after surging last week, with investors awaiting several appearances by Federal Reserve officials this week for further clues on the outlook for monetary policy. On Sunday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation remained too high and that price pressures have spread beyond the initial oil-price shock linked to the Iran war. Last week, the dollar index climbed more than 1?ter the Fed raised interest rates and signalled at least one additional hike this year, while Chair Warsh reiterated the central bank's commitment to bring inflation under control.

 

The South Korean won rose slightly to 1,384.73 per dollar, snapping a five-day losing streak. The Philippine peso also rose marginally to 62.75 per dollar from 62.83 Friday. 

 

The Thai baht remained flat at 33.27 per dollar. The Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan were also steady against the dollar at 31.76 and 6.70 per dollar, respectively. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End 

 

US$1 = INR 95.8150

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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