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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI –  The rupee rose sharply against the dollar Tuesday as Brent crude oil prices fell below $98 per barrel after reports that Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. The rupee also found support from the Reserve Bank of India's mild intervention, they said. However, banks' dollar purchases for importers weighed on the rupee during the day. 

 

"Rupee turned positive during last leg of trade due to strong profit booking in crude prices after reports of a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. And there was the RBI also who supported the rupee," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

After hitting a low of 95.8550 a dollar, the rupee closed at 95.5900 a dollar Tuesday, higher than the previous close of 95.8150. The rupee moved in a range of 28 paise during the day. The Indian unit posted it biggest single-day gain in nearly three weeks. Most Asian currencies also rose against the dollar, with the South Korean won being the best performer, followed by the Philippine peso. Bucking the trend, the Indonesian rupiah fell sharply on Tuesday. 

 

During the day, the rupee edged lower against the dollar as high crude oil prices prompted importers to persistently buy dollars. However, public sector banks sold dollars for the Reserve Bank of India at multiple levels, which limited the fall to just 4 paise. 

 

However, after reports that Iran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US takes initial steps toward easing military pressure, the Indian currency jumped to a high of 95.5800 per dollar Tuesday. As per reports, the proposal has already been conveyed to Washington through mediators and calls for renewed talks aimed at reaching a permanent end to hostilities between the two countries, a senior Iranian government official said.

 

A sharp fall in crude oil prices supported the rupee. At 1530 IST, Brent crude for October delivery was at $98.98 per barrel, down from $100.34 per barrel Monday. Dealers said market sentiment changed after news of the potential reopening of a key waterway. 

 

The dollar index also shed gains, supporting the Indian unit. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 100.38, lower than 100.43 Monday.

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell for the third consecutive day to a three-week low as the Reserve Bank of India did not conduct dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps Tuesday.

 

The RBI had conducted foreign exchange swaps for eight consecutive trading days, which pushed the one-year dollar-rupee forward premium up by 27 basis points during this period. The RBI has been conducting swaps in near-term tenures, ranging from one to four-month maturities.

 

However, dealers said banks also bought forward dollars on behalf of importers, noting a sharp fall in crude oil prices, which limited the fall in forward premiums.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year forward premium was at 3.15%, compared with 3.24% on Monday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 301.37 paise, against 310.61 paise on Monday. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee will track crude oil prices amid evolving developments in the war between the US and Iran, dealers said. The Indian unit is also likely to track the dollar index as traders gauge the Federal Reserve's interest rate path to its meeting in October. 

 

"The rupee will rise on more positive developments in the reopening of Hormuz. It can go even 95.35 (a dollar). If the opposite news comes, then all gains booked today will be reversed," a dealer at another foreign bank said.

 

Amid global uncertainty, dealers expect importers to keep buying dollars, weighing on the rupee. However, dealers expect the RBI to keep actively intervening in the market to defend the currency. 

 

"Market attention will also remain on US-China developments, including Chinese President Xi Jinping's meeting with his US counterpart, along with the upcoming UN speech by US President Donald Trump. These geopolitical developments could trigger sharp moves in crude, the dollar and the rupee," Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - commodity and currency, LKP Securities, said in a note. 

 

Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.50 per dollar. The rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.35-95.80 per dollar Wednesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index nears 7-week high on rate hike bets

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3356	1.3387	1.3327	1.3365
EUR/USD	1.1454	1.1479	1.1434	1.1466
NZD/USD	0.5739	0.5748	0.5695	0.5712
AUD/USD	0.7111	0.7126	0.7093	0.7119
USD/JPY	157.1580	157.7750	156.8600	157.2840
USD/CAD	1.4038	1.4050	1.4025	1.4030
EUR/JPY	180.0470	180.8280	179.7600	180.4000
CHF/USD	1.2182	1.2197	1.2158	1.2171
EUR/CHF	0.9403	0.9418	0.9398	0.9415

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose sharply and neared a seven-week high, supported by the prospect of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates further. At 1420 IST, the dollar index was at 100.61, up from 100.43 Monday. 

 

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Monday said another 25 basis-point rate hike likely wouldn't be enough if inflation was being driven by more enduring factors than higher energy prices. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said further rate increases were needed to rein in inflation. The comments came after the Fed lifted rates by 25 basis points last week and pencilled in at least one more hike this year.

 

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.147, touching its lowest level since late July, as higher crude oil prices weighed on market sentiment. The pound sterling also fell marginally to $1.338.

 

The Japanese yen rose to 157.09 per dollar, snapping two days of a fall. The Canadian dollar and Australian dollar rose 0.2?ch against the greenback.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums fall on RBI's FX sell-buy swap pause, rise in US yields

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8125	95.7475	95.6500	95.8325	95.8150
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	303.88	306.13	308.38	302.38	310.61

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures for the third consecutive day as the Reserve Bank of India did not conduct dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps Tuesday. The RBI had conducted foreign exchange swaps for eight consecutive days. These swaps had pushed the one-year dollar-rupee forward premium up by 27 basis points during the period.

 

The RBI had been conducting swaps in the near-term tenures, ranging from one to four months. "Premiums were rising because of RBI's swap. Now that is absent. Importers are also not booking forwards because of uncertainty in the direction of crude oil prices," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Forward premiums were also under pressure from a rise in US Treasury yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by around 3 basis points to 4.98% on Tuesday after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials strengthened expectations of further interest rate hikes.

 

At 1350 IST, the one-year forward premium was at 3.17%, compared with 3.24% on Monday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 303.88 paise against 310.61 paise on Monday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Erases gains as crude prices rise; RBI's dollar sales limit fall

 

	AT 1300 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8125	95.7475	95.6500	95.8325	95.8150

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased gains against the dollar Tuesday as crude oil prices rebounded to $102 per barrel, dealers said. Brent crude oil gained after falling to $100 a barrel in the previous session. Markets are currently torn between heightened geopolitical risk in the West Asia and renewed hopes for diplomatic progress. Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned Tuesday that it would "change the geography of the war" if the US escalates the conflict. 

 

Fears of rising crude oil prices prompted banks to buy dollars for importers, erasing the rupee's early gains. Importers consistently bought greenback on every dip, keeping the Indian unit under pressure.

 

However, the Reserve Bank of India's continuous dollar sales through state-owned banks limited the fall of the rupee. The central bank has been actively selling dollars since two weeks to defend rupee from extreme volatility.  

 

A firm dollar also continued to weigh on the local unit, they said. At 1300 IST, the dollar index was at 100.45, higher than 100.43 Monday. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.65-95.90. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.87 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 22

 

MUMBAI – At 1140  IST, the rupee was at 95.8025 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.7475 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.8150. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.95	95.85	95.65	95.60
Public-sector bank	95.90	95.80	95.66	95.60
Private-sector bank	95.95	95.80	95.60	95.55
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.90	95.60	95.50
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.95	95.65	95.60

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Rises as crude prices ease; importers' demand may weigh

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7500	95.7475	95.6500	95.7500	95.8150

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar as crude oil prices eased to around $100 per barrel, with the market expecting prices to decline further, dealers said. "Once the rupee broke 95.70 (a dollar), it quickly went to 95.65. I think it was due to positive sentiment in market from fall in crude oil prices," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was $101.13 a barrel, up from $100.34 a barrel Monday. However, Brent crude oil prices are down 7% from the highs seen in the previous week.

 

The rupee is expected to move in a narrow range, similar to the range in the previous session. Dealers said this consolidation was due to active dollar buying by banks on behalf of importers, a trend that is likely to cap any significant gains for the local unit.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.65-95.80. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.65 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 22

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.95	95.65
Private-sector bank	95.90	95.65
Private-sector bank	96.00	95.70
Foreign bank	95.90	95.70
Foreign bank	95.90	95.60
Brokerage firm	95.90	95.60
Brokerage firm	95.95	95.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most steady as crude prices ease; S Korean won rises

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies remained broadly steady against the dollar Tuesday as Brent crude oil prices retreated from the high of $109 a barrel seen in previous week and traded around $101 per barrel. This positive sentiment was further supported by some easing in US Treasury yields, which improved the broader risk environment. 

 

At 0830 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was $101.21 a barrel, up from $100.34 Monday.

 

However, bucking the trend, the South Korean won rose a sharp 1% to 1,361.18 a dollar as foreign investors returned as net buyers. KOSPI index opened 2% higher at 7,126 points Tuesday. 

 

The Philippine peso rose marginally to 62.66 per dollar, while the Thai baht and Taiwan dollar remained steady against the dollar Tuesday. The Chinese yuan was flat at 6.695 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)  

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.5900

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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