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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026

 

NEW DELHI – India will continue to have the strongest growth outlook globally over the next 12 months, according to a World Economic Forum survey. The Indian economy is expected to grow 6.7% in 2026–27 (Apr-Mar), driven by resilient domestic demand, the international organisation said Tuesday.

 

The projection is in line with the Reserve Bank of India's forecast for FY27. Recently, S&P Global estimated India's GDP growth in FY27 at 6.6% while Moody's projected it at 7.0%. India's GDP grew at 7.8% in FY26.

 

"Growth is expected to remain supported by resilient domestic demand, although higher energy prices continue to weigh on the outlook," the World Economic Forum said in its Chief Economists' Outlook insight report for September. "India continues to have the strongest growth outlook among the geographies covered in the survey."

 

India has faced a major energy supply shock following the onset of the war in West Asia. Brent crude oil prices have been volatile amid the war, surging to $122 per barrel in April. Crude oil prices later moderated to $72 per barrel in July before rising again to over $100 per barrel as the war escalated. Currently, crude oil is trading at $98.10 per barrel.

 

That said, most chief economists view India as having a "moderate" capacity to withstand future shocks among the geographies covered, according to the survey. The World Economic Forum survey, conducted during Aug. 4–20, compared 10 geographical regions: the US, Europe, China, Japan, India, Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

 

About 98% of chief economists surveyed expect the Indian economy to display moderate or stronger growth over the next 12 months. This includes 74% of chief economists who anticipate "strong or very strong growth", compared with 52% in May, the report said.

 

More than half of survey participants expect retail inflation in India to moderate, while the remaining 45% see higher inflation over the next 12 months. CPI inflation rose to 4.82% in August from 4.45% in July. The August print was the third consecutive month inflation was above the RBI's 4% medium-term target.

 

Despite the rising headline inflation, 67% of respondents expect monetary policy in India to remain unchanged, while 24% of chief economists anticipate "tightening" of monetary policy. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee will meet on Oct. 5–7. The rate-setting panel had left the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% in August.

 

Even fiscal policy is expected to remain broadly stable, with 72% of the respondents not anticipating any change, while 22% expect "looser policy". "Strong growth and inflation that remains within the tolerance range are broadly consistent with survey expectations of policy stability," the report said.

 

The survey also tracked unemployment. About 70% of chief economists do not anticipate any change in the unemployment rate over the next 12 months, while the remaining respondents were divided.

 

India's unemployment rate among those aged 15 and above fell to a six-month low of 5.0% in August from 5.1% in July. The labour force participation rate – the percentage of persons working, seeking, or available for work – also rose to a six-month high of 55.6% in August from 55.4% in July. "These developments point to relatively stable labour market conditions alongside strong activity, although sustained employment creation remains important," the report said. 

 

In terms of the business environment, India dropped to fourth from second in the last outlook. Only 40% of respondents saw India as their top three multinational enterprise destinations, the report said.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.59

 

Reported by Shweta

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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