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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026

By Divya Moolayattil

MUMBAI – The rupee is expected to remain broadly steady Wednesday as the fall in crude oil prices following signs of easing tensions in West Asia is likely to be offset by strong dollar demand from importers, dealers said.

The Indian unit is expected to open around 95.55 a dollar after settling at a near one-week high of 95.59 Tuesday. The rupee is expected to consolidate in a range of 95.50-95.80 during the day, dealers said.

A break below 95.50 could help the rupee rise further to 95.20, dealers said. However, the market would need a fresh positive trigger for the rupee to sustain gains beyond 95.50, they said.

Asian currencies also consolidated against the dollar Wednesday as crude oil prices fell amid signs of easing tensions in West Asia.

Global oil prices fell Tuesday on optimism over improving crude oil flows after media reports said Saudi Arabia was testing a critical East-West pipeline damaged in attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militia over a week ago, with a possible restart this week.

At 0750 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $98.83 a barrel, down from $99.25 Tuesday and $100.34 Monday. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said at the United Nations General Assembly in New York that US officials had a "very good" three-hour meeting with Iranian leaders, with another meeting scheduled in the "very near future". An Iranian official also confirmed the statement, which further weighed on crude oil prices.

"There are high chances that the rupee may rise further given the fact that higher oil flow expectations and no fresh attacks may lead to lower oil prices eventually," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

However, banks may continue to buy dollars for importers at relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which could weigh on the Indian unit. Foreign portfolio outflows are also likely to put pressure on the rupee.

The dollar index remained firm, which is expected to limit gains in the rupee. However, the Reserve Bank of India may continue to sell dollars to contain downward pressure on the Indian unit.

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium is expected to rise Wednesday as dealers expect the RBI to continue conducting dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to drain surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system. The central bank likely bought dollars for forward delivery in the near tenures on multiple days, as per dealers. 

On an annualised basis, the premium on the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward contract is seen at 3.15-3.18% Wednesday. On Tuesday, it settled at 3.15%. On an absolute basis, the premium ended at 301.38 paise.

End

US$1 = INR 95.5900

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

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