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Informist, Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at a one-week low against the dollar Thursday as crude oil prices rose above $105 a barrel after Iran said that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as long as sanctions and the US blockade remain in effect. Active dollar purchases by importers weighed on the rupee. However, the RBI's presence in the market limited the rupee's depreciation. 

 

"Everything was against the rupee today. Tensions escalated in the middle of the day. Crude prices rose more, which is why the rupee touched 95.95 today. The RBI was just slowing the pace of depreciation," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

 

The Indian currency settled at 95.9550 per dollar on Thursday, down 0.2% from Wednesday's close. The rupee traded in a narrow range of 14 paise during the day. Asian currencies fell 0.2-0.5% against the dollar Thursday, with the Indonesian rupiah being the worst performer.  

 

The rupee began the day on a weaker note as crude oil prices shot up after the Iranian President said Tehran would not bow down to US threats, raising doubts about the prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Crude oil prices rose further to nearly $106 per barrel during the day after a military adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned that Iran may expand the conflict to the Indian Ocean if the US or Israel attacks Iran again. Brent crude futures for November delivery rose to a one-week high of $105.40 a barrel at 1530 IST, up from $103.08 a barrel Wednesday. 

 

The rupee came under further pressure as banks rushed to purchase the greenback on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, fearing a further depreciation, dealers said. The rupee plunged by nearly 23 paise during the day to 95.9700 due to aggressive bidding by importers. "There was a lot of buying pressure today as the crude was just rising. Importers became more active as crude crossed $105 a barrel," the dealer said.    

 

However, the losses for the Indian unit were limited as the RBI stepped in with dollar sales through public-sector banks. The RBI's dollar sales were seen at multiple levels, though they were mild, dealers said. 

 

The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.06% Wednesday, surpassing its earlier September peak of 5.03% and reaching its highest level since July 2007. The dollar index held above 101 Thursday, hovering at a two-month high, which put pressure on Asian currencies, including the rupee. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 101.23 against 101.12 Wendesday. 

 

A sharp fall in domestic equities also weighed on the local currency. Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 1.6% lower each Thursday.  

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9550	95.8350	95.8350	95.9700	95.7400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	329.75	311.75	330.25	311.75	309.67

 

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums jumped across tenures as the RBI likely conducted dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. The central bank likely conducted swaps maturing in August 2027.

 

The central bank has been conducting a dollar-rupee sell-buy swap for two weeks straight. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to a four-month high Thursday.

 

The market expects the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee to hike interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting to counter accelerating inflation, which puts upward pressure on forward premiums.

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums also got support as banks bought forward dollars for importers, noting the sharp rise in crude oil prices. At 1530 IST, Brent crude futures for November delivery was at a one-week high of $105.40 a barrel, up from $103.08 a barrel Wednesday.

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.44%, up sharply from 3.22% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 329.75 paise, compared with 309.67 paise Wednesday. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movements in crude oil prices amid evolving developments in West Asia, dealers said. Most dealers expect the Indian unit to remain under pressure as long as Brent crude prices stay over $100 per barrel. 

 

The Indian currency will also continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said. Traders remain cautious ahead of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled Oct 5-7. The market expects the panel to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points to contain inflation pressures.

 

"If the situation remains the same or escalates, the rupee will definitely breach 96.00 at open tomorrow," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid looming uncertainties related to the war in West Asia, exerting pressure on the Indian unit. However, market participants expect the RBI to step in through dollar sales if the Indian unit comes under pressure, as it has recently.

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.20 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 96.00-96.30 against the dollar Friday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index at 2-mo high; W Asia war keeps oil higher

 

	AT 1400 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3240	1.3256	1.3223	1.3239
EUR/USD	1.1389	1.1399	1.1369	1.1381
NZD/USD	0.5673	0.5686	0.5670	0.5669
AUD/USD	0.7032	0.7045	0.7018	0.7035
USD/JPY	158.3810	158.4860	157.7980	158.2970
USD/CAD	1.4103	1.4113	1.4097	1.4101
EUR/JPY	180.3780	180.4580	179.5100	180.1600
CHF/USD	1.2081	1.2153	1.2075	1.2114
EUR/CHF	0.9426	0.9436	0.9373	0.9389

 

MUMBAI – The dollar held steady at a two-month high on Thursday after strong manufacturing data reignited inflation fears and boosted expectations for interest rate hikes. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of peers, held near a two-month high at 101.05.

 

The euro rose marginally to $1.1393, erasing losses in early trade. The euro hit a two-month low in early trade, while sterling pound also erased losses and was steady at $1.324 Thursday. The pound hovered near a three-month low in early trade.

 

A sharp rise in crude oil prices to over $103 per barrel also weighed on the currencies. The uncertainty in peace talks between the US and Iran fuelled doubts over diplomatic resolution to the war and the reopening of the key waterway. At 1400 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery traded at $105.92 per barrel, up from Wednesday's low of $97.91 a barrel. 

 

The Japanese yen depreciated past 158 per dollar on Thursday, hovering at three-week lows as the dollar strengthened. Meanwhile, traders remained on alert for possible intervention after markets judged the Bank of Japan's rate hike to a 31-year high last week as insufficiently hawkish. The Australian dollar stood at 1.421 per dollar, down 0.04%, ahead of the latest employment data. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: 1-yr premiums at 4-month high on RBI's FX swap, rate hike bets

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9075	95.8350	95.8350	95.9225	95.7400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	326.75	311.75	329.19	311.75	309.67

 

MUMBAI – Dollar rupee forward premium jumped across tenures as the RBI likely conducted dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. The central bank likely conducted swaps maturing in August 2027.

 

In the last 10 days, there has only been paying. The RBI was hitting in forwards in the morning. Along with that, the rate hike expectation in October MPC has pushed the premiums up, a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The one-year dollar rupee forward premium rose to a four-month-high Thursday. The central bank has been conducting a dollar-rupee sell-buy swap for 2 weeks straight. 

 

The market expects the Monetary Policy Committee to hike interest rates by 25 to 50 basis points at its upcoming October meeting to counter accelerating inflation, which puts upward pressure on the forward premiums. "Traders are holding their premiums as they await the MPC policy decision," the dealer said. 

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums also got support as banks bought forward dollars for importers, noting a sharp rise in crude oil prices, they said. At 1330 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was $103.28 a barrel, down from Wednesday's low of $97.81 a barrel. 

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.41%, higher than Wednesday's close of 3.22%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 326.75 paise, against 309.67 paise Wednesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls as Brent crude tops $103/bbl; RBI dollar sales limit fall

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8800	95.8350	95.8350	95.9225	95.7400

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar as banks bought dollars for importers, noting a sharp rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars through state-owned banks, which limited the fall of the Indian rupee to 95.9225 a dollar, they said. 

 

"All factors are against the rupee now," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. "If the RBI lets loose, the rupee will definitely fall to 96 (a dollar). But so far, the RBI has a shield on, so I don't think the rupee will fall beyond 95.96 (a dollar)."

 

A sharp rise in crude oil prices weighed on the Indian unit. Crude oil prices rose sharply overnight after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the US ends its naval blockade of Iranian ports. He also said Iran would not bow down to US threats, raising doubts over any path to a diplomatic resolution of the war and reopening of the key waterway. At 1230 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery traded at $103.72 per barrel, up from Wednesday's low of $97.91 a barrel. 

 

The dollar index held above 101 Thursday, hovering at a two-month high as stronger-than-expected US economic data heightened inflation concerns and reinforced expectations for further monetary policy tightening, which put pressure on Asian currencies, including the rupee. At 1230 IST, the dollar index was at 101.11 against 101.12 Thursday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen in a range of 95.80-95.96 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.96 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 24

 

MUMBAI – At 1140 IST, the rupee was at 95.8925 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.8350 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.7400. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.00	95.95	95.80	95.70
Private-sector bank	96.05	95.98	95.80	95.70
Foreign bank	96.00	95.95	95.80	95.70
Brokerage firm	96.05	96.00	95.75	95.65
Brokerage firm	96.05	96.00	95.60	95.55

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls as crude, dlr index rise; RBI intervention limit fall

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8350	95.8350	95.8350	95.8700	95.7400

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar in early trade Thursday as crude oil prices rose sharply after Iranian President said that Tehran would not bow to the US threats, adding that the Islamic Republic would not give up its right to develop nuclear technology for economic development. He also said Iran would not allow freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as long as sanctions and a US blockade remained in effect.

 

"The crude is up, which means the pressure will be there on the rupee. I think the RBI will defend 95.90 (a dollar) level. But if the RBI doesn't come aggressively at that level, the rupee could easily touch 96.00 (a dollar)," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The Reserve Bank of India's mild intervention by the way of dollar sales through public-sector banks, at around 95.86 per dollar limited the fall of the rupee, dealers said. They expect the central bank to keep the rupee away from 96.00 per dollar for the day. 

 

The Indian unit was weighed down as US Treasury yields rose sharply Wednesday, fuelled by stronger-than-expected manufacturing data, raising expectation that the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates again. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.06% Wednesday, surpassing its earlier September peak of 5.03% and reaching its highest level since July 2007.

 

The dollar index was near a two-month high as bets of an interest rate hike in October increased, which weighed on the rupee, dealers said. At 0930 IST, the dollar index was at 101.14, compared with 101.12 Wednesday. "All factors are against the rupee now. Now the RBI will decide the movement of the rupee," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.75-95.96 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.96 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 24

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.95	95.60
Private-sector bank	96.00	95.65
Private-sector bank	95.95	95.75
Foreign bank	95.95	95.70
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.65
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Down as dollar, crude jump; South Korean won falls

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies fell in early trade Thursday as dollar index was near a two-month high and crdue oil prices rose sharply. At 0825 IST, the dollar index was at 101.16, up against 101.12 Wednesday and 100.54 Tuesday, as bets of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in October increased. 

 

Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $102.24 a barrel, up from a low of $97.10 seen Wednesday. Brent crude oil prices surged over 4% overnight Wednesday, snapping five consecutive sessions of losses amid heightened uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the UN General Assembly that Tehran would not bow to threats, adding that the Islamic Republic would not give up its right to develop nuclear technology for economic development.

 

The South Korean won fell to 1,370.52 per dollar, down for the second consecutive day. The won fell the most among the Asian peers Thursday. The Philippine peso and Thai baht fell marginally Thursday. The peso fell to 62.72 a dollar and baht was down at 33.39 a dollar. 

 

The Taiwan dollar was also down marginally, hitting one-week low at 31.87 per dollar. The Chinese yuan extended its fall for fourth day and was down 0.2% to 6.71 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)    

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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