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Informist, Monday, Sept. 28, 2026

 

By Adhithya Aji

 

MUMBAI – The benchmark equity indices are expected to fall further Tuesday as higher crude oil prices and rising bond yields are likely to hit investor sentiment. The overall market structure remained weak as the Nifty 50 hit a five-month low and closed below 22800 points. The 50-stock benchmark index is expected to witness high volatility on account of the monthly futures and options expiry.

 

The November futures contract of Brent crude oil was up 4% at $108.52 per barrel. Higher crude oil prices are expected to give the equity markets, already in oversold position, no relief. "The next trigger for the markets will be Q2 (Apr-Sept) earnings, which will start somewhere around mid-October," Geetanjali Kedia, chief analyst at SPTulsian Investment Advisory Services, said. The September quarter earnings are expected to see some impact due to higher inventory costs, according to Kedia. Markets are also pricing in an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India at its October monetary policy meeting next week. Market participants are pricing in another hike in December as well, she said.

 

Another point of weakness for the market is the large outflow of liquidity from the secondary to the primary market. Analysts are bullish on the primary market as the initial public offers this month have been valued generously and their growth remains healthy, according to the analyst. Shares of the National Stock Exchange of India, which were listed at a small premium Thursday, fell below its issue price of INR 1,785 per share Monday. The shares ended nearly 2% lower at INR 1,762.70 on BSE.

 

"Despite ongoing geopolitical headwinds, energy price volatility, and bouts of macro(economic) uncertainty, India's economy and corporates have demonstrated resilience during the extreme volatility seen in the past two years," Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a report. The country's GDP growth was at 7.8% during the June quarter. Goods and services tax collections were robust, healthy credit growth, strong automobile sales volumes, and steady recovery in corporate earnings in the June quarter indicate underlying economic growth for India.

 

Monday, the government released industrial output data for August. India's industrial output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, grew 8.0% in August, led by higher manufacturing and electricity output, data from the statistics ministry showed. The country's factory output growth accelerated from 7.4% reported in July.

 

The Nifty 50 is in an oversold position, according to Jatin Gedia, senior vice-president, technical research, at Teji Mandi Investment Technologies. The next support for the benchmark index is seen at 22600–22400 points, where 22400 is the 200-day exponential moving average for the index, according to Gedia. Tuesday, the 50-stock index is likely to see volatility due to the monthly expiry of its derivative contracts, the analyst added. The immediate resistance for the index is pegged at around 23000 points, he added.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.98

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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