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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar Wednesday, supported by active intervention by the Reserve Bank of India and dollar sales by foreign banks, dealers said. However, persistent dollar demand from importers capped the gains, they said.

 

"Following the RBI's initial interventions at around 95.96 (a dollar), significant trading activity was observed from foreign banks. The market likely saw profit-booking, driven by a subsequent drop in crude oil prices alongside standard quarter-end and half-year-end settlements," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

The rupee settled at 95.8300 a dollar, up 0.2% from Tuesday's close. It moved in a 25-paise range during the day. The rupee has fallen 0.7% from its level of 95.16 at the end of August, with RBI's dollar sales limiting further depreciation despite higher crude oil prices and the dollar index. The rupee remains one of the worst-performing Asian currencies this quarter despite staggering dollar inflows of $132.98 bln under the special swap programme.

 

Most Asian currencies were broadly steady against the dollar on Wednesday, while the Indonesian rupiah rose the most, gaining 0.7%, followed by the Indian rupee.  

 

The rupee opened steady against the dollar as an overnight pullback in crude oil prices and a sharp reduction in expectations of another US Federal Reserve rate hike improved sentiment in early trade. 

 

However, Brent crude rose back towards $97 a barrel on Wednesday and was heading for a monthly gain of more than 7% due to uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations. Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said Tehran had received a US proposal concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following the submission of Iran's own conditions last week. Saudi Arabia restored operations on its East-West pipeline, which provides an alternative route around Hormuz, easing supply concerns. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for December delivery was at $97.43 a barrel, up from $96.16 Tuesday. 

 

The dollar index also fell to 101.19 at 1530 IST from 101.38 Tuesday after New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank need not rush to continue raising interest rates. Traders now see 57.1% probability of a rate hike by the Fed in October, compared to 70.9% probability a day ago.

 

"The market caught the early trend of fall in the crude and the dollar index and traded on that sentiment today. There was strong importers' demand, too, due to their month-end and quarter-end payments," a dealer at a private sector bank said. The rupee rose to a high of 95.75 a dollar Wednesday. 

 

The rupee's rise was capped as banks bought dollars for importers to meet month-end payment obligations, which weighed on the domestic currency. Continued foreign portfolio outflows from Indian capital markets also weighed on the rupee. FPIs have sold a net $4.21 billion from Indian markets in September.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8300	95.9500	95.7400	95.9875	95.9800
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	321.17	315.83	321.75	311.08	318.22

 

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly as banks bought forward dollar on behalf of importers, dealers said. Further, US Treasury yields eased slightly as an overnight pullback in crude oil prices and a sharp reduction in expectations of another US Federal Reserve rate hike improved sentiment, which limited further rise in forward premiums. At 1530 IST, the US Treasury yield was at 5.23%, down from 5.24% Tuesday. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.35%, against Tuesday's close of 3.32%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 321.17 paise, against Tuesday's close of 318.22 paise.

 

OUTLOOK 

On Thursday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movements in crude oil prices amid evolving developments in West Asia, dealers said. The Indian currency will also continue to take cues from movements in the dollar index, they said. Traders await a slew of data from Europe and the US later in the day, which will influence the rupee's movement. 

 

Traders remain cautious ahead of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for Oct 5-7. The market expects the panel to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points to 50 basis points to contain inflationary pressures.

 

"The overall sentiment remains weak for rupee, as continued FII selling and elevated volatility across global markets continue to weigh," Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities said.

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.00 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.60-96.00 against the dollar Thursday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index dips on reduced Fed rate hike bets

 

	AT 1415 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3271	1.3278	1.3223	1.3225
EUR/USD	1.1354	1.1357	1.1329	1.1343
NZD/USD	0.5655	0.5662	0.5634	0.5638
AUD/USD	0.6976	0.6995	0.6959	0.6987
USD/JPY	156.8680	157.4580	156.3780	157.2830
USD/CAD	1.4180	1.4200	1.4176	1.4188
EUR/JPY	178.1120	178.5550	177.3390	178.4300
CHF/USD	1.2007	1.2010	1.1980	1.1983
EUR/CHF	0.9456	0.9463	0.9449	0.9455

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index erased early gains and fell slightly on a sharp fall in expectations of another US Federal Reserve rate hike after New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank need not rush to continue raising interest rates. Traders now see only a 45% probability of a rate hike by the Fed in October, compared to a 71% probability a day ago. The dollar index also fell slightly to 101.27 from 101.38 Tuesday.

 

The euro was steady at $1.135, but remained close to its lowest level since May 2025. The market expected the European Central Bank to tighten interest rates more slowly than the Fed. Markets are pricing in further ECB rate hikes over the coming year, with the next move likely in December, while the Fed faces a near 45% chance of another hike in October. 

 

UK GDP growth has been revised upwards to 0.5% for Apr-Jun from 0.4% initially estimated, as per data released Wednesday. While for the full year, the real GDP growth is estimated at 1.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate. The pound sterling rose 0.2% to $1.326 Wednesday, but remained near a three-month low.

 

The yen rose 0.2% to 156.95 a dollar as repeated warnings of intervention from Japanese officials and quarter-end flows supported the currency. The Canadian dollar was down marginally at 1.42 a dollar, and the Australian dollar fell 0.2% to 1.43 a dollar Wednesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee:Premiums steady as banks' fwd dlr sales offset importers' demand

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8300	95.9500	95.7500	95.9875	95.9800
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	317.67	315.83	321.75	311.08	318.22

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was broadly steady as banks' forward dollar sales offset their forward dollar purchases for importers, dealers said. "There is only normal activity in the market, that is why the premiums are in expected range today," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The rupee rose in the spot market as the Reserve Bank of India continuously intervened against the dollar buying pressure, dealers said. A slight dip in crude oil prices also supported the Indian unit. At 1330 IST, Brent crude oil for December delivery was at $95.85 a barrel, down from $96.16 Tuesday. 

 

Further, US Treasury yields eased slightly as an overnight pullback in crude oil prices and a sharp reduction in expectations of another US Federal Reserve rate hike improved sentiment, which weighed slightly on forward premiums. At 1330 IST, the US Treasury yield was at 5.22%, down from 5.24% Tuesday. 

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.31%, against Tuesday's close of 3.32%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 317.67 paise, against Tuesday's close of 318.22 paise. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Inches up as RBI's dollar sales counter importers' demand

 

	AT 1245 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9400	95.9500	95.9100	95.9875	95.9800

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose slightly against the dollar as some public sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. "There's intervention today. The RBI has been protecting 96 (a dollar) level continuously despite (dollar) buying pressure," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

The central bank has been defending the psychologically crucial 96.00-a-dollar level, making it a key level for traders. Dealers said the RBI has enough foreign exchange reserves to continue protecting the rupee at this level.

 

Banks also bought dollars actively for importers amid month-end payment obligations, weighing on the Indian unit. Elevated crude oil prices and the dollar index also added to the pressure.

 

However, at 1230 IST, Brent crude oil for December delivery fell to $96.40 a barrel from $97.46 at the end of Indian foreign exchange market hours Tuesday. The decline provided some relief to the rupee. Oil prices eased after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline resumed operations faster than expected, helping alleviate concerns about energy supplies and inflationary pressures.

 

Although the dollar index remained near a two-month high, it fell slightly to 101.24 at 1230 IST from 101.38 on Tuesday, after traders trimmed bets on further rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve following comments by New York Fed President John Williams that the central bank need not rush to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, continued foreign portfolio outflows from Indian capital markets also weighed on the rupee. FPIs have sold a net $4.21 billion from Indian markets in September.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to trade in a range of 95.80-96.00 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support at 96.00 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 30

 

MUMBAI –  At 1120 IST, the rupee was at 95.9725 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.9500 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.9800. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.05	95.98	95.80	95.70
Private-sector bank	96.10	95.98	95.90	95.80
Brokerage firm	96.10	96.05	95.80	95.70
Brokerage firm	96.12	95.97	95.77	95.62

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Steady on fall in crude oil prices, lower Fed rate hike bets

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9600	95.9500	95.9100	95.9675	95.9800

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained steady against the dollar as crude oil prices fell after supply concerns eased as Saudi Arabia restored flows through the East-West pipeline, dealers said. Lower bets of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in October also provided a boost to the local currency.

 

"Based on crude movement, rupee will stabilise a bit," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "But month end dollar demand will also be there, so (USD/INR) above 96 is also possible today."   

 

At 0915 IST, Brent crude oil for December delivery traded at $96.34 a barrel, down from $97.46 per barrel at the end of Indian foreign exchange market hours Tuesday. Saudi Arabia has resumed oil exports through its East-West pipeline after repairs were completed following drone strikes on Sept. 10. The world's top crude oil exporter has now restored flows through the pipeline to around 3.5 million barrels per day against a capacity of seven million bpd. 

 

Traders now see only a 47% probability of a rate hike by the Fed in October, compared to a 71% probability a day ago, as they assessed New York Fed President John Williams's comment that the central bank need not rush to continue raising interest rates. Lower odds of a Fed rate hike have relieved some pressure on the Indian unit. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen in a range of 95.80-96.10 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.10 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most inch up as crude prices dip; South Korean won dn

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies inched up against the dollar Wednesday as crude oil prices eased slightly, along with US Treasury yields and the dollar index. Crude oil prices came off highs as concerns over a supply crunch that have dialled up inflationary pressures worldwide eased after Saudi Arabia restored flows through the East-West pipeline. 

 

Meanwhile, US bond yields eased after New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank need not rush to continue raising interest rates. Traders now see only a 47% probability of a rate hike by the Fed in October, compared to a 71% probability a day ago. The dollar index also fell slightly to 101.32 from 101.38 Tuesday. 

 

The South Korean won fell 0.2% to 1354.98 per dollar as foreign investors exited local stocks. The Kospi extended its losses to a third session and fell by 0.45% in early trade Wednesday.

 

The Philippine peso snapped a two-day losing streak and rose marginally to 62.53 a dollar from 62.58 Tuesday. The Taiwan dollar was steady at 31.86 a dollar. 

 

The Chinese yuan rose marginally to 6.70 a dollar as China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index surged to 50.1% in September, up 0.3 percentage points from August, returning to expansion territory after two consecutive months of contraction. The Thai baht rose for the second consecutive day to 33.51 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 30

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.15	95.80
Private-sector bank	95.98	95.80
Private-sector bank	95.97	95.75
Private-sector bank	96.10	95.80
Brokerage firm	96.10	95.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 30

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.15	95.80
Private-sector bank	95.98	95.80
Private-sector bank	95.97	95.75
Private-sector bank	96.10	95.80
Brokerage firm	96.10	95.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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