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Informist, Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar to a two-month low as banks bought dollars aggressively for importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. A strong dollar index and higher US Treasury yields also kept the rupee under pressure. However, the Reserve Bank of India's mild dollar sales made sure the Indian currency did not breach 96.45 per dollar, they said.

 

"Despite a fall in crude prices, there was huge demand for dollars today. Foreign portfolio investors are currently exiting as the market has priced in a hike of around 25 basis points in the policy meeting tomorrow," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

 

The rupee settled at 96.4200 a dollar Tuesday, down from Monday's close of 96.2925 a dollar. The currency followed a similar trend as in the previous session and moved in a tight 12-paise range during the day.

 

The Indian unit has been gradually depreciating amid global uncertainties. Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar, with the Chinese yuan being the best performer. The Philippine peso fell the most among Asian currencies, while the rupee was among the few currencies to decline.   

 

The rupee opened weaker as the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to a 24-year high in early trade, dealers said. However, the 10-year US Treasury yield pulled back to 5.27% as oil fell below $100 a barrel and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pledged that stronger growth and spending restraint would begin improving the US debt trajectory.

The dollar index fell slightly, but hovered near an 18-month high Tuesday. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six major currencies, was at 102.02, down from 102.10 Monday.

 

Traders were cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee decision scheduled for Wednesday. The market expects the rate-setting panel to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points to contain inflationary pressures. "Traders have already discounted the 25 basis points hike, so the rupee may touch 96 (a dollar), but will not breach (rise above) that figure," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

A modest decline in crude oil prices offered some respite to the rupee. Oil prices slipped back towards $98 a barrel as traders weighed the Group of Seven countries' planned release of emergency oil and diesel stocks against renewed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and persistent supply risks stemming from the West Asia conflict. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for December delivery was $98.57 a barrel, down from $100.32 Monday. 

 

Banks stepped up dollar purchases on behalf of foreign portfolio investors looking to exit Indian capital markets, adding to the pressure on the rupee. FPIs withdrew over $6.5 billion from the domestic market in September, the highest monthly outflow in six months, and pulled out nearly $1 billion on the first day of October. Dollar demand from importers further weighed on the currency, they said.

 

However, dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India through state-owned banks cushioned the rupee's fall. The central bank is intervening to limit the rupee's depreciation, allowing it to weaken gradually by around 10 paise, dealers said. 

  

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.4200	96.3225	96.3225	96.4450	96.2925
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	333.23	319.60	335.37	319.47	319.90

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to a one-week high Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of India likely conducted sell-buy swaps for maturities up to one year to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. The one-month dollar-rupee forward premium rose the most, up 41 basis points to 4.32% on Tuesday.

 

The RBI's dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps, along with other measures such as a variable reverse repo rate, brought down the liquidity surplus to INR 5.3 trillion, from a record high of INR 11.2 trillion in September.

 

However, a sharp surge in US Treasury yields during the day put pressure on forward premiums. The 10-year bond yield hovered near 5.31%, levels not seen since 2002. Investors await release of minutes from the US Federal Reserve's last meeting due Wednesday. 

 

Some dealers said banks sold dollars for forward delivery for exporters, noting the relatively higher levels, which also weighed on forward premiums. At 1530 IST, the one-year forward premium was 3.45%, up from 3.32% Monday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 333.23 paise, up from 319.90 paise on Monday. 

 

OUTLOOK 

On Wednesday, market participants will track the RBI's monetary policy and comments on inflation, growth and liquidity. The MPC is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps, owing to uncertainty over the impact of the war in West Asia on economic activity and inflation. "Market participants are largely factoring in a 25 bps rate hike. The policy outcome and guidance could keep the currency volatile tomorrow," Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities said in a note.

 

The rupee will also track movements in crude oil prices and the dollar index, dealers said. Markets will focus on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, due Wednesday, for further cues on policy outlook.

 

Dealers expect importers and FPIs to continue buying dollars, weighing on the rupee. They expect the RBI to intervene if the rupee comes under pressure. 

 

Dealers see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 96.00 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 96.00–96.50 against the dollar Wednesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index near 18-month high; euro broadly steady

 

	AT 1412 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3244	1.3244	1.3201	1.3219
EUR/USD	1.1245	1.1246	1.1203	1.1220
NZD/USD	0.5605	0.5606	0.5590	0.5600
AUD/USD	0.6978	0.6979	0.6962	0.6969
USD/JPY	158.1650	158.2430	157.7730	157.8650
USD/CAD	1.4270	1.4285	1.4255	1.4248
EUR/JPY	177.8480	177.8730	177.0360	177.1900
CHF/USD	1.2015	1.2045	1.2009	1.2026
EUR/CHF	0.9358	0.9359	0.9321	0.9324

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index fell slightly, but hovered near an 18-month-high Tuesday amid elevated US Treasury yields. At 1414 IST, the dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six major currencies, was at 102.07, down from 102.10 Monday. The dollar was also supported by safe haven demand due to geopolitical troubles and the potential sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

 

The euro snapped its losing streak of five-consecutive days and was broadly steady in early trade Tuesday at $1.1229. However, it hovered near a 17-month-low hit Monday amid the sell-off in French government bonds fuelled by fiscal concerns due to surging borrowing costs. The pound sterling rose marginally, snapping its losing streak of two straight days. The pound was at $1.32 Tuesday.

 

The yen declined to 158.12 per dollar. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda Tuesday stressed the focus on keeping inflation around the central bank's 2% target, signalling a potential rate hike at the two-day meeting later this month.  

 

The Swiss franc fell nearly 0.2%, while Swedish Krona was also marginally down against the dollar. The Canadian dollar fell 0.1% to 1.4275 per dollar.  (Nandini Sinha)

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India Rupee: At over 2-month low on FX outflows, strong dlr; RBI limits fall

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell to a more than two-month low against the dollar as a strengthening greenback and a surge in US Treasury yields weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Banks stepped up dollar purchases on behalf of foreign portfolio investors looking to exit Indian capital markets, adding to the pressure on the rupee. Dollar demand from importers further weighed on the currency, they said.

 

However, dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India through state-owned banks cushioned the rupee's fall. "There is huge buying pressure in the market now. But, most of it squared off by the RBI's (dollar) sales. The rupee's fall was held off at 96.42 (a dollar). But they were not aggressively selling," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The dollar index rose to an 18-month high, supported by elevated US interest rates and safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, putting further pressure on the Indian currency. The greenback's rally has extended into the fourth consecutive week, with geopolitical tensions in Europe adding to its safe-haven appeal. At 1220 IST, the dollar index was at 102.24, up from 102.10 on Monday.

 

US Treasury yields surged back to 24-year highs after briefly easing in the previous session, as investors remained concerned about fiscal risks, persistent inflation, and the sustainability of the country's debt. At 1220 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield was at 5.31%.

 

A modest decline in crude oil prices offered some respite to the rupee. Oil prices slipped back towards $99 a barrel as traders weighed the Group of Seven countries' planned release of emergency oil and diesel stocks against renewed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and persistent supply risks stemming from the West Asia conflict.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in a range of 96.20-96.50 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support at 96.50 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Oct 6

 

MUMBAI –  At 1125 IST, the rupee was at 96.4100 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 96.3225 a dollar, against the previous close of 96.2925. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.65	96.45	96.20	96.05
Private-sector bank	96.60	96.45	96.20	96.00
Brokerage firm	96.55	96.50	96.20	96.10
Brokerage firm	96.52	96.48	96.18	96.00

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Down on high US ylds, firm dollar index; mkt eyes MPC decision

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.3900	96.3225	96.3225	96.4300	96.2925

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar as US Treasury yields remained near a 24-year high, dealers said. US yields rose sharply amid momentum from the bond sell-off as investors assessed fresh economic data and prepared for the release of the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes Wednesday.

 

The dollar index also rose in early trade Tuesday, which weighed on the Indian unit. At 0930 IST, the dollar index was at 102.15, up from 102.10 on Monday.

 

The market sentiment stayed subdued despite a pullback in crude oil prices, as negotiations between the US and Iran remained stalled. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tuesday that negotiations with Washington are "meaningless" because of US attacks during negotiations.

 

"Yesterday, crude rose sharply to 103 ($ per barrel). There are chances oil may hit the same level today. Also, US yields are back to the highs seen last week. All of this is putting pressure on the rupee now," a dealer at a public sector bank said. "Traders are also positioning their trades ahead of the policy meeting."

 

Traders remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee decision scheduled for Wednesday. The market expects the rate-setting panel to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points to contain inflationary pressures.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in a range of 96.20-96.50 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support at 96.50 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Oct 6

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.50	96.10
Private-sector bank	96.45	96.10
Private-sector bank	96.45	96.15
Private-sector bank	96.40	96.20
Foreign bank	96.40	96.20
Brokerage firm	96.45	96.10
Brokerage firm	96.50	96.18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as dlr strengthens; fall in oil supports

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar in early trade Tuesday, with the Philippine peso falling the most, followed by the South Korean won.

 

A pullback in crude oil prices overnight Monday provided some support to the Asian currencies. However, it remained above $100 per barrel. Crude exports from west Asia rising to levels seen before the US-Iran war in September eased supply concerns. At 0804 IST, Brent crude oil for December delivery was $100.70 per barrel, broadly unchanged from $100.32 Monday.

The dollar index remained broadly unchanged from Monday, but hovered near an 18-month high. At 0832 IST, the dollar index was at 102.18, up from 102.10 Monday. The Philippine peso was the worst performer among the Asian currencies, falling 0.26% to 62.805 per dollar, while the South Korean won fell 0.2% to 1,344.13 a dollar.

 

The Japanese yen fell marginally to 158.03 a dollar, while the Taiwan dollar fell slightly to 31.745 per dollar. Bucking the trend, the Chinese yuan rose 0.2% to 6.69 a dollar. The Thai baht was steady against the dollar at 33.64 per dollar.  (Nandini Sinha)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 96.42

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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