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Informist, Friday, Oct. 23, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar for a second straight day as importers continued to buy dollars despite the Reserve Bank of India's measures to remove a significant portion of dollar demand from the market, dealers said. A sharp surge in crude oil prices to over $114 a barrel fuelled dollar demand, while the RBI's persistent dollar sales limited the rupee's losses.
 

"The RBI made strong efforts to hold the rupee around 94.95 a dollar, but there were heavy dollar bids today," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The rupee settled at 94.9400 a dollar on Friday, down from the previous close of 94.8175. The Indian unit traded in a 22-paise range during the day.

 

The Indian unit touched a high of 94.3150 this week on foreign fund inflows, but later reversed gains and ended the week slightly above the previous week's close. A sudden surge in crude oil prices during the week weighed on the Indian unit.

 

The rupee was the least-depreciating currency among its Asian peers this week, supported by the RBI's recent measures to curb speculative bets and reduce dollar demand amid geopolitical uncertainty. Asian currencies were broadly steady against the dollar on Friday. 

 

The rupee opened broadly steady against the dollar as foreign fund inflows, likely linked to Jio Platforms Ltd.'s initial public offering, offset the impact of rising crude oil prices. Jio Platforms IPO was subscribed 15.6 times on the second day of bidding. Qualified institutional buyers subscribed 44.37 times, leading the demand across investor categories. Foreign institutional investors accounted for nearly half of the total bids placed by qualified institutional buyers. The company aims to raise up to INR 302.13 billion through India's largest public offering, comprising a fresh issue of 270 million shares.

 

As the day progressed, inflows eased, and rising crude oil prices began exerting pressure on the rupee. Brent crude rose above $114 a barrel Friday, its highest level in more than five months, as escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian targets and reports of possible renewed US strikes against Iran heightened supply concerns in West Asia. At 1530 IST, Brent crude for December delivery was at $114.44 a barrel, up from $113.17 on Thursday.

 

Higher crude oil prices prompted importers to step up dollar purchases, putting further pressure on the rupee. However, market participants remained cautious amid global market volatility and the Reserve Bank of India's recent measures to restrict dollar purchases. Banks also covered their short dollar positions as the rupee approached the crucial 95-per-dollar level.

 

"Risk-off flows and market unwinding added to the weakness, though the rupee later steadied and moved into a narrow band in the later part of the day," said Dilip Parmar, senior research analyst at HDFC Securities.

 

The rupee's losses were limited as the RBI intervened through public sector banks by selling dollars. The central bank sold dollars at around 94.95 per dollar, though the intervention was mild, dealers said.

 

A sharp fall in domestic equities also weighed on the rupee. The Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.4% and 0.2% lower, respectively, on Friday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.9400	94.7900	94.7600	94.9750	94.8175
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	391.95	401.35	407.85	391.00	408.10

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell sharply for the second consecutive day Friday as banks sold forward dollars on behalf of exporters to take advantage of the relatively higher levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium has risen by 82 basis points so far this month. Dealers said exporters hedged their currency risk, fearing further decline in forward premiums.

 

Banks now must maintain a 20% foreign exchange risk reserve for derivative contracts involving the rupee with a notional value exceeding $2 million. As a result, market participants are undertaking lower-value transactions, a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Meanwhile, banks bought forward dollars for foreign investors looking to participate in Jio Platforms' initial public offering, dealers said. This limited the fall in premiums. 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 4.12%, down from 4.30% Thursday. In absolute terms, the premium was at 391.95 paise, down from 408.10 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

Monday, the rupee will continue to take cues from crude oil price movements as the situation in West Asia evolves, dealers said. The Indian currency will also continue to follow the dollar index and US Treasury yields, they said. Dealers expect the RBI to sell dollars if the rupee comes under pressure due to high demand for the greenback.

 

The RBI's measures are expected to continue to ease pressure on the spot market and curb speculative dollar purchases, supporting the currency Monday. Market participants will now turn their attention to the US Federal Reserve's policy decision due Wednesday. Traders see a 99% probability the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its October meeting and an 84% probability of a rate hike in December.

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.00 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in the 94.75–95.10 range against the dollar Monday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index inches up; Canadian dollar top gainer

 

	AT 1527 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3380	1.3408	1.3371	1.3395
EUR/USD	1.1200	1.1227	1.1185	1.1216
NZD/USD	0.5686	0.5699	0.5679	0.5677
AUD/USD	0.7018	0.7025	0.7005	0.7013
USD/JPY	156.6270	157.1600	156.0800	156.7740
USD/CAD	1.4001	1.4022	1.3998	1.4007
EUR/JPY	175.4270	176.2230	175.2050	175.8600
CHF/USD	1.2158	1.2207	1.2135	1.2176
EUR/CHF	0.9212	0.9228	0.9196	0.9206

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index inched up Friday after falling to a three-week low Thursday. At 1444 IST, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of peers, was at 101.81. The 10-year US Treasury note was up at 4.97% from 4.96% Thursday.

 

The yen was slightly up at 156.67 per dollar. Japan's core inflation for September exceeded the central bank's target of 2% and further increased bets of a rate hike. 

 

The greenback fell the most against the Canadian dollar as it weakened 0.2% to 1.40 per dollar. The Swiss franc was up 0.1% at 0.82 per dollar. The Swedish krona was also up at 9.91 per dollar. 

The euro recovered against the greenback after falling in the previous session. Latest data Friday showed business activity in the eurozone slowed in October, with the HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers Index falling to 51.9 from 53.1 in August. The slowdown was due to a contraction of figures in Germany--the Eurozone's largest economy, and France.  (Nandini Sinha)

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India Rupee: One-yr premium falls sharply as exporters sell forward dollars

 

	AT 1251 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.9300	94.7900	94.7600	94.9600	94.8175
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	394.73	401.35	407.85	391.15	408.10

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell sharply for the second consecutive day Friday as banks sold forward dollars on behalf of exporters to take advantage of the relatively higher levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium has risen by 82 basis points so far this month. Dealers said exporters hedged their currency risk, fearing further decline in forward premiums.

 

Banks now must maintain a 20% foreign exchange risk reserve for derivative contracts involving the rupee with a notional value exceeding $2 million. As a result, market participants are undertaking lower-value transactions, a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Meanwhile, banks also continued to buy forward dollars for foreign investors looking to participate in Jio Platforms' initial public offering, dealers said. This limited the fall in premiums. 

At 1251 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 4.16%, down from 4.30% Thursday. In absolute terms, the premium was at 394.73 paise, down from 408.10 paise Thursday.  (Nandini Sinha)

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India Rupee: Inches down as importers buy dollars; crude oil tops $114/bbl

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.9275	94.7900	94.7600	94.9600	94.8175

 

MUMBAI – The rupee inched down against the dollar as banks purchased dollars for importers after Brent crude oil prices crossed the $114 per barrel mark, dealers said. However, the purchase of dollars by some public sector banks, likely for the Reserve Bank of India, around 94.95 per dollar, limited the fall of the Indian unit.

 

Inflows from foreign portfolio investors, likely for Jio Platforms' initial public offering, also supported the rupee, they said. Jio Platforms' IPO opened on Wednesday and will close at 1530 IST. The public issue was subscribed 5.57 times as of Thursday--the second day of bidding. The company is seeking to raise up to INR 302.13 billion through the IPO with a fresh issue of 270 million shares. 

Brent crude oil traded at a five-month-high as conflict between the Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia escalated. This further exerted pressure on the rupee. "With crude at $114 (per barrel), there are a lot of dollar outflows. A lot of hedging is happening because of it," a dealer at a private sector bank said.  

 

"Crude oil prices may go beyond $120 (per barrel) if the (geopolitical) situation worsens," a dealer at a second private sector bank said. "That's why the rupee is depreciating." 

 

Importers continued to buy dollars Friday, fearing a further rise in crude oil prices. But volumes were comparatively on the lower side from the previous session. The rupee reversed its gains on Thursday, falling around 50 paise from a seven-week intraday high of 94.31 per dollar. This drop was triggered by a surge in dollar demand from importers as crude oil prices climbed past $112 a barrel.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move between 94.70 and 95.05 against the dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.95 per dollar.  (Nandini Sinha)

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India Rupee: Steady as FX inflows offset impact of crude oil prices

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7700	94.7900	94.7600	94.8200	94.8175

MUMBAI – The rupee was broadly steady against the dollar as some inflows, likely for Jio Platforms Ltd.'s initial public offering, offset the impact of rising crude oil prices, dealers said.

 

The Jio Platforms public issue was subscribed 5.57 times as of Thursday, the second day of bidding, with strong demand from institutional and non-institutional investors. Investors bid for 1.1 billion shares against 197.53 million shares on offer, according to BSE data. Qualified institutional buyers subscribed their portion 13.29 times, leading demand across investor categories.

 

However, Brent crude rose above $114 a barrel Friday, its highest level in more than five months, as escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian targets and reports of possible renewed US strikes against Iran heightened supply concerns in West Asia. At 0915 IST, Brent crude for December delivery was at $113.70 a barrel, up from $113.17 Thursday. "If crude keeps rising, the rupee will definitely depreciate," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. "But the RBI will defend the figure (95 a dollar) today, I think."

 

Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to sell dollars through public-sector banks and support the rupee if it comes under intense pressure and nears 95 a dollar. "I don't think we will see importers hedging aggressively due to the recent RBI measures in place," a dealer at a broking firm said. "However, the rupee might break 95 today in the absence of RBI intervention." 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move between 94.55 and 94.95 against the dollar. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.70 per dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Oct 23

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.00	94.67
Public-sector bank	94.95	94.70
Private-sector bank	95.10	94.55
Private-sector bank	95.00	94.40
Brokerage firm	95.10	94.55
Brokerage firm	95.05	94.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Yen at 5-week high as Japan's core inflation tops 2%

 

MUMBAI – The Japanese yen hit a five-week high in early trade Friday after the latest core inflation data for September rose above the Bank of Japan's 2% target to 2.1% and supported the case for a rate hike by the central bank. The US dollar index snapped three days of fall and was up at 101.67 at 0809 IST. However, the dollar was down against most Asian currencies in the early session. 

 

Brent crude oil futures for December delivery were at a five-month high amid escalating tensions in West Asia and rose above $114 per barrel. The South Korean won and the Thai baht were broadly steady at 1,325 per dollar and 33.71 per dollar, respectively. 

 

The Chinese yuan was the sole loser at 6.67 per dollar. The Chinese unit was down in early trade after rising to its highest level in over four years against the dollar Thursday. Traders are pricing in a very small likelihood of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve next week. However, they are expecting a 75% probability of a hike at the US central bank's meeting in December.

 

The Philippine peso rose the most against the dollar at 63.36 per dollar. The Taiwanese dollar was broadly steady at 32.59 per dollar.  (Nandini Sinha) 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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