Informist, Monday, Aug 2, 2021
By Roshni Devi and S. Anirudh Iyer
MUMBAI – The US Federal Reserve's reiteration of its dovish stance, and fears over rising COVID-19 cases worldwide are likely to lift gold prices this month.
The majority of traders and analysts polled by Informist expect a slightly positive trend in gold prices. The average forecast for gold futures was at 46,500-48,500 rupees per 10 gm on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and at $1,780-$1,850 an ounce on the COMEX, according to a poll of 10 traders and analysts.
At the time of writing this report, the most active October contract was at around 47,845 rupees per 10 gm on the MCX and the December futures at $1,811 an ounce on the COMEX.
In July, prices rose over 2% in global and local markets.
While most factors driving gold are positive, some consolidation and profit booking are likely, said Pranav Mer, analyst at Aditya Birla Money.
At its meeting last week, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank would maintain its extraordinarily accommodative stance and extend every assistance to help the world's largest economy recover.
The Fed keeping interest rates near zero and buying mortgage-backed assets and US debt on a continuing basis would ensure the dollar index remains weak, which will help bullion prices rise, said Kshitij Purohit, lead of international products and commodities at CapitalVia Global Research.
The slow pace of vaccination in some countries, the rapid spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19, and new lockdowns in Asia and Australia will also aid gold. "Fears of a global economic downturn have fuelled demand for precious metals as a safe haven," ABans Group founder Abhishek Bansal said.
In the domestic market, demand for gold is seen remaining tepid over the next few weeks as August has few auspicious occasions, which typically prompt buying.
Following is a summary of the poll by Informist on gold prices in August and details of estimates by respondents, in alphabetical order:
| ANALYSTS/TRADERS | DOMESTIC PRICE | INTERNATIONAL PRICE |
| (rupees per 10 gm) | ($ per ounce) | |
| ABans Group | 46,500-49,700 | 1,762-1,882 |
| Aditya Birla Money | 46,500-49,500 | 1,760-1,850 |
| CapitalVia Global Research | 46,500-48,500 | 1,790-1,840 |
| Economy Forecast Agency | 47,697-49,175 | 1,760-1,946 |
| HDFC Securities | 46,900-49,700 | 1,780-1,860 |
| Kedia Comtrade | 47,200-50,400 | 1,790-1,870 |
| Kotak Securities | 46,800-49,000 | 1,780-1,850 |
| LKP Securities | 47,400-48,800 | 1,790-1,830 |
| Reliance Securities | 47,800-48,500 | 1,790-1,875 |
| Umedmal Tilokchand Zaveri | 46,500-48,500 | 1,780-1,850 |
End
US$1 = 74.34 rupees
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
With inputs from Sayantan Sarkar
Edited by Charumathi Sankaran
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